Estimation of time for a 500 meter standing start. 
 
What 500 m time could a rider expect based on a rider's Power Profile?  The plot below shows how speed falls off during the last 200 meters.  The second plots shows that a 10% improvement in power would result in a 1.1 second improvement in 500 m time. 

Rider Time at 500 m = 44.2 s.

Plot of Rider Speed vs Distance

Plot Power Profile 

For 10% more power: 

Rider Time at 500 m = 43.1 s. 

Plot of Rider Speed vs Distance

Plot Power Profile